A proposed anti-gay law in Kenya could have severe economic consequences, costing the country up to $7.8 billion per year, according to a new report by Open for Business, a Britain-based charity that assesses the financial impact of discrimination.
The report, released on Wednesday, highlights the economic risks of anti-LGBTQ policies in East Africa, warning that Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, and Rwanda are already losing up to $5 billion annually due to anti-gay discrimination.
Kenya’s Current LGBTQ Landscape
While gay sex is already illegal in Kenya under a colonial-era law, the legislation is rarely enforced. Compared to its neighbors, Kenya has been relatively more tolerant, providing a degree of refuge for LGBTQ individuals in the region.
However, the country still grapples with significant stigma and discrimination, fueled by religious leaders and populist politicians.
Now, a newly proposed Family Protection Bill seeks to introduce harsher penalties, including prison sentences of up to 50 years for same-sex relations. Although the bill has not yet been debated in parliament, its potential enactment has already raised serious concerns.
Economic Impact of the Proposed Law
According to Open for Business, the new legislation could increase Kenya’s economic losses by an additional $2.7 billion to $7.8 billion per year.
The losses would stem from:
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Decreased foreign direct investment
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Lost World Bank funding
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Reduced tourism revenue
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Increased health costs due to depression and disparities in HIV treatment
Before this proposed law, Kenya was already losing between $360 million and $1.5 billion annually due to discrimination against LGBTQ individuals, according to the report.
Lessons from Uganda’s Anti-Gay Law
Kenya’s potential economic fallout mirrors Uganda’s experience after it passed one of the harshest anti-LGBTQ laws in the world in 2023—the Anti-Homosexuality Act.
Under the law, penalties for consensual same-sex relations include life imprisonment, while “aggravated homosexuality” is punishable by death.
As a result of this legislation, the World Bank froze lending to Uganda, cutting off millions of dollars in development funding.
The report estimates that Uganda is now losing between $586 million and $2.4 billion per year due to anti-LGBTQ discrimination, affecting economic growth, job creation, and global investment.
Impact on Other East African Nations
The report also examined Tanzania and Rwanda, revealing that:
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Tanzania is losing up to $1.1 billion annually due to anti-LGBTQ policies.
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Rwanda, which is among the least discriminatory countries in the region, still loses up to $45 million per year.
Business and Global Reputation at Stake
The chairman of Open for Business, Dominic Arnall, warned that anti-LGBTQ laws not only impact human rights but also damage a country’s economic future.
“Anti-LGBTQ+ laws harm a country’s investment prospects, damage their global reputation, and prevent businesses from attracting the very best in global talent,” Arnall stated in the report.
He urged government, business, and civil society leaders to recognize the evidence and advocate for inclusion, not just for LGBTQ populations, but for the overall prosperity of East African economies.
“We hope the report will provide leaders with the evidence they need to make their own case for inclusion—not just for LGBTQ+ populations who are in urgent need of respite, but for all East Africans who deserve a bright and prosperous future.”
What’s Next for Kenya?
With debate on the Family Protection Bill pending, Kenya faces a critical decision that could determine its economic trajectory and international reputation.
The experiences of Uganda, Tanzania, and Rwanda serve as stark warnings of the potential financial damage anti-LGBTQ policies can inflict.
As global institutions like the World Bank and international investors watch closely, Kenya must decide whether it will follow Uganda’s path or protect its economic interests by upholding human rights and inclusion.
